Οι μεγαλύτεροι κατασκευαστές όπλων στον κόσμο έχουν δει την αξία τους να αυξάνεται κατά σχεδόν 14 δισεκατομμύρια λίρες μετά τη δολοφονία του Qasem Soleimani.
Iran crisis: Value of top arms firms rises by £14bn as US-Iran standoff fuels expectation of bumper weaponry orders
Global arms sales rose by five per cent to $420bn in 2018 — a near 50 per cent rise since 2002
Two low-flying Eurofighter Typhoons take off from RAF Coningsby in Lincolnshire. The state-of-the art jet, made companies including Britain’s BAE Systems, has secured export deals to countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar (Photo: Getty)
The world’s largest arms manufacturers have seen their value rise by nearly £14bn in the wake of the assassination of Qassem Soleimani as the confrontation between the United States and Iran fuels expectations of lucrative new defence equipment orders.
While the world has collectively held its breath since the drone attack which killed Iran’s de facto military leader, investors have been betting the defence sector is set to see a boom in sales.
Analysis by i shows that in the 24 hours after the assassination ordered by President Donald Trump, the stock market value of the world’s nine largest listed arms companies rose by $13bn (£10bn). By the afternoon that increase had risen further to $17.9bn (£13.7bn).
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Lockheed Martin, the American conglomerate which is by far the world’s largest arms producer with showcase weaponry such as the F-35 fighter jet, saw its value reach an all-time high last Friday, increasing by $4.2bn in a single day to $116bn.
BAE Systems, Britain’s largest defence company and currently ranked as the sixth biggest in the world with the help of its key role in the Eurofighter Typhoon, saw its value rise by £256m (Photo: Peter Byrne/PA Wire)
Embargo lists
BAE Systems, Britain’s largest defence company and currently ranked as the sixth biggest in the world with the help of its key role in the Eurofighter Typhoon, saw its value rise by £256m in the hours after the Iranian general’s death - a figure which has reached nearly £1bn.
Among the companies benefiting will be Almaz-Antey, Russia’s biggest arms producer whose state-of-the-art S-400 air defence system has long been at the top of Iran’s weaponry shopping list. In 2018, the company saw its sales jump by 18 per cent to $9.6bn and it is gaining an increasing share of global arms sales as Moscow promotes sales countries that include some on Western arms embargo lists.
As publicly listed companies, US and European manufacturers have little control over market sentiment which drives peaks - and troughs - in their share price and market value.
Regional dominance
But the dash by investors to grab defence stocks reflects a long term upward trend in weaponry sales around the world, with countries in the Arabian Gulf in particular wanting to acquire the latest capabilities.
Justin Bronk, a defence specialist at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank, told i: “There are still a large number of unknowable variables at play in terms of how this situation plays out. However, it is certainly likely to lead to [Gulf] states and possibly Israel to calculate on a more potentially belligerent Iranian threat in the coming year or two which tends to lead to great orders for high-end defence equipment.”
The sort of weaponry likely to be sought includes air defence systems, high-tech munitions and missiles, and advanced fighter aircraft, as well as counter-insurgency and cyber security technology used to try to cancel out Iran’s preferred tactics of so-called “asymmetric” warfare aimed at throwing better-equipped foes off balance.
Russian S-400 Triumph medium-range and long-range surface-to-air missile systems ride through Red Square (Photo: NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA/AFP/Getty)
'Insecurity'
One City defence analyst said: “This is not a straightforward ‘I’ve got bigger and better bombs and jets than you have’ equation. Iran is proving itself adept at wrongfooting its regional rivals, and the west, by its use of proxies and to some extent cyber tactics. It all adds to a sense of insecurity which sees countries like Saudi Arabia seeking the capability to respond across the whole spectrum. Fortunately for the UK, we are very much in the space of being able to meet that demand. This is not about profiting from misery, it’s about having the ability to deter and prevent a wider conflict.”
Defence and security remains a key part of Britain’s manufacturing sector, employing 374,000 people and contributing £78bn to GDP, with 88 per cent of export earnings coming from aviation technology.
Britain is among the world’s biggest defence exporters and according to Government figures some 60 per cent of all sales – worth some £49bn – over the last decade going to the Middle East, a figure which in 2018 grew to 80 per cent.
Yemen
At the heart of this is Britain’s close relationship with Saudi Arabia, by far the world’s largest weaponry importer (between 2009 and 2013 alone its arms purchases grew by 192 per cent).
Britain has supplied arms worth £6.2bn to the desert kingdom and its allies in their ongoing air campaign in Yemen to defeat Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in a conflict which is estimated to have directly cost 8,000 civilian lives. The United Nations has described the situation as the worst humanitarian crisis in the world.
But it is a weaponry supply chain which at least in part is currently on hold after campaigners won a legal ruling last year that UK arms sales to Riyadh had been unlawful after ministers failed to adequately assess the risk that the weaponry would be used against civilians.
57 export applications on hold
As a result there is a ban in place on all new weapons deals with Saudi Arabia, a move which the i understands involves at least 57 new applications to export defence equipment to the country currently being on hold
Campaigners said it remained to be seen to what extent the existing ban, which the Government will this year seek to overturn by proving in court that it is now complying with all rules, will prevent UK companies from missing out on fresh sales.
Andrew Smith, of Campaign Against Arms Trade, said: “We are always being told how rigorous and robust the arms export control system is. But the billions of pounds worth of arms sales that are approved to authoritarian regimes every year tell a different story.
“There is no such thing as arms control in a conflict zone, and we don’t know when these weapons will be used or who they will be used against.”
'Bombs, bullets and bugs'
What is beyond question is that on a global scale, weaponry sales are extremely buoyant in a world increasingly defined by geo-political muscle as leading military powers such as the United States, China and Russia ramp up their defence spending.
A report last month by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a respected security think-tank, found that sales by the world’s top 100 defence companies in 2018 grew by nearly five per cent year on year to $420bn - a 47 per cent increase since 2002. The share of that total taken by America’s arms manufacturers was 59 per cent.
As the City analyst put it: “It’s little wonder that these stocks are racing ahead. You have got the world’s superpowers squaring up to each other and an arms race for conflicts which no-one really knows what they will look like. It’s a good time to be in bombs, bullets and bugs.”
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